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Written update

SMC Update 10-09-26

Members only

I am back with the regular updates, and would like to thank Bobby for taking over in the meantime.
There is plenty to catch up on. What interests me most right now is where the market is confirming the broader picture, and where it is starting to disagree.
The main change since my last update is that the Fed has followed through. September brought a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75–4.00%, and the minutes released Wednesday showed that most participants considered another increase likely to be appropriate before year-end.