StockMarket Cycles StockMarket Cycles
Plans & Pricing

Commentary timeline

Comments (3)

We welcome all comments related to market timing. We do not welcome political and insulting comments, however, and comments of a political nature belong elsewhere and could lead to removal and blocking the originator of such political comments.

You cannot post comments.
Sign up for Market Commentary or Bundle membership, or log in if you are already a member.

Jeff
Jeff

Would be great to know what the statistical probability of the sp500 going higher at this juncture would be. Maybe I missed this, but when a crossing or non crossing occurs, it is then a flip of a coin unless it breaks the trend line or other the sum of other evidence unrelated to the software? So I get a 50% chance it goes up or down and a roughly 70% chance it has to go higher if it breaks the trend line. Am I correct/close? or completely wrong?

SS79976231410
SS79976231410

Jeff said:

Would be great to know what the statistical probability of the sp500 going higher at this juncture would be. Maybe I missed this, but when a crossing or non crossing occurs, it is then a flip of a coin unless it breaks the trend line or other the sum of other evidence unrelated to the software? So I get a 50% chance it goes up or down and a roughly 70% chance it has to go higher if it breaks the trend line. Am I correct/close? or completely wrong?

Some advise. Go on your instincts. Technical analysis is dubious at best. If you go back and look at the fortune tellers record you would realize that fundamentals control the day - not trend lines - not advance decline, etc. The market comes down to whether or not there are more buyers than sellers at a given moment at time. Not the vudo of a trendline or a cycle from a ridiculously small sample that probability alone makes something looks like it works. Think for yourself Jeff and forget the fortune tellers who line their pockets with taking advantage of those who in good faith are looking for answers that the fortune tellers do not have !!!

1–3 of 3