SMC Update Week Ending 3-3-23 Recorded 3-4-23

brian1469 said:

Thanks Peter for your work they have definitely thrown us all up and down the last few months.

I still feel like even if we get to the 4400 24 on the ES we are just still in a topping pattern instead of a new bull market. I would lean more that we still have never entered a Bear and it is still to come.

The consumer is getting hit finally which lead me to believe we are not starting a new bull. I also feel like the sticky inflation has helped keep the market up in topping pattern.

I remember 08 I started trading in 06. But to my memory it was like today everybody knew credit issues were coming but it took forever for the stock market to finally get hit. They were some major issues in CRE this past week that made me reminded me of 08. Once they start they are hard to stop. I know we don't pay attention to the macro as much on here but I think it is important to see these little things that are giving clues for the issues to come

brian1469 said:

Thanks Peter for your work they have definitely thrown us all up and down the last few months.

I still feel like even if we get to the 4400 24 on the ES we are just still in a topping pattern instead of a new bull market. I would lean more that we still have never entered a Bear and it is still to come.

The consumer is getting hit finally which lead me to believe we are not starting a new bull. I also feel like the sticky inflation has helped keep the market up in topping pattern.

I remember 08 I started trading in 06. But to my memory it was like today everybody knew credit issues were coming but it took forever for the stock market to finally get hit. They were some major issues in CRE this past week that made me reminded me of 08. Once they start they are hard to stop. I know we don't pay attention to the macro as much on here but I think it is important to see these little things that are giving clues for the issues to come

Respectfully, as i have offered before; this is nothing like either the 2000-03 bear or the 2007-09 bear. We are not as overvalued like 2000 and not as overleveraged as 2007> not by a longshot. We could have a recession, could be a consumer led, shallow one. Since you started trading in 2006, you will notice, the market goes up about 72% of the time. Sure it goes down. Sharp, not long lasting down moves happen. The daily outlook for failure of rally and massive decline is a low odds bet all by itself. Read Peter Lynch, who invested over cycles and had down years only to have the upside pay 10x

So , what i am hearing is it is BULLISH on NDX for Monday. And the SPX is above the continuum. Also, seems bullish. Got it

To Brian1469: not saying this is new bull market. Im saying this is not the bear of 2000 nor 2007. we could be up or down 10% this year. the bearish calls, super bearish calls from Nov until this present moment have been just incorrect. no other way to spin it. the SPX just rallied 3.1% in 1.5 days. that is huge move. As Peter said "especially with leverage" gigantic move. And i just watched video, and i hear "more upside expected but shouldnt be more that 2% more" unless its a new move higher. Never sure to know what action to take on that.
You say you are super bearish but could see 4400? and hedge with LONG futures? what could u possibly be short if you are long Eminis? also, its statistically true, the market goes up 72% of the time. Im not making that up.

Brian, okay, appreciate that. good luck to us all! I do get frustrated at a continued bias that has been in place for last 4 months. and this update now, from what i hear, is we are going up to at least that 4100 level. maybe with some non confirmations in market, we could sell back down to your 4022/25 area

Question: what happens ABOVE 12400 in NDX and 4090 SPX? how high is higher ?

Grateful for Peter’s experience & calls. Looks like the worm has turned. SPX still needs to fill gap from open for me to sigh relief. Russell 2000 is now down on day and Wilshire 5000 has filled the gap up from open. Looks like good set up for tomorrow. ~Dorothy

Sweet SPX filled gap from open. There’s still 1 more gap to fill to destroy Bulls case. 3/3 SPX gapped up has to touch 3990.84 to kill positive energy. IDEALLY we Gap Down on Open Tomorrow. ~ Dorothy

daniel039209 said:

brian1469 said:

Thanks Peter for your work they have definitely thrown us all up and down the last few months.

I still feel like even if we get to the 4400 24 on the ES we are just still in a topping pattern instead of a new bull market. I would lean more that we still have never entered a Bear and it is still to come.

The consumer is getting hit finally which lead me to believe we are not starting a new bull. I also feel like the sticky inflation has helped keep the market up in topping pattern.

I remember 08 I started trading in 06. But to my memory it was like today everybody knew credit issues were coming but it took forever for the stock market to finally get hit. They were some major issues in CRE this past week that made me reminded me of 08. Once they start they are hard to stop. I know we don't pay attention to the macro as much on here but I think it is important to see these little things that are giving clues for the issues to come

brian1469 said:

Thanks Peter for your work they have definitely thrown us all up and down the last few months.

I still feel like even if we get to the 4400 24 on the ES we are just still in a topping pattern instead of a new bull market. I would lean more that we still have never entered a Bear and it is still to come.

The consumer is getting hit finally which lead me to believe we are not starting a new bull. I also feel like the sticky inflation has helped keep the market up in topping pattern.

I remember 08 I started trading in 06. But to my memory it was like today everybody knew credit issues were coming but it took forever for the stock market to finally get hit. They were some major issues in CRE this past week that made me reminded me of 08. Once they start they are hard to stop. I know we don't pay attention to the macro as much on here but I think it is important to see these little things that are giving clues for the issues to come

Respectfully, as i have offered before; this is nothing like either the 2000-03 bear or the 2007-09 bear. We are not as overvalued like 2000 and not as overleveraged as 2007> not by a longshot. We could have a recession, could be a consumer led, shallow one. Since you started trading in 2006, you will notice, the market goes up about 72% of the time. Sure it goes down. Sharp, not long lasting down moves happen. The daily outlook for failure of rally and massive decline is a low odds bet all by itself. Read Peter Lynch, who invested over cycles and had down years only to have the upside pay 10x

daniel039209 said:

So , what i am hearing is it is BULLISH on NDX for Monday. And the SPX is above the continuum. Also, seems bullish. Got it

Then you're not hearing what I said, Daniel. The projections called today virtually perfectly. Upside projections were met for NDX and the fact that SPX was above the continuum simply confirmed its upside INTRADAY projection which was just missed on the daily chart but fully met from the intra-day equivalent projections. See today's update...