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spencerdavis2000
spencerdavis2000

thanks for the great update Peter have a nice weekend.

ryguy
ryguy

One idea to decide linear versus logarithmic is look at the statistics letting the numbers show the way

srblack1960144
srblack1960144

Peter/All - I was playing around with 130-minute bars in TradeStation, which results in three bars per 6.5-hour trading day. I looked at the precise highs and lows since the all-time high at about 4800, and found a clear pattern. There was essentially a double top with highs for the S&P 500 on 12/30/21 (1st bar of the day), and 1/4/22. I chose to start with the first high on the morning of 12/30/21, and zoomed in and counted the following number of bars to each high and low in 2022…

  1. 114 bars to the 2/24/22 LOW (1st bar of that day)
  2. 117 bars to the 4/21/22 HIGH (1st bar of that day)
  3. 120 bars to the 6/17/22 LOW (1st bar of that day)
  4. 122 bars to the 8/16/22 HIGH (3rd bar of that day)
  5. 121 bars to the 10/13/22 LOW (1st bar of that day)
  6. 125 bars to the 12/13/22 HIGH (1st bar of that day, and note that Black Friday had 2 bars, a shortened day) Note that the cycle has been lengthening by about 2 bars each time, on average, and also note that each cycle has been alternating as a high and then a low, no exceptions. If this pattern continues, I’d expect the next low, which I think will be a major low and the bottom of a large wave A of the secular bear market that should last much of the 2020s, should come after about 127 bars on 2/14/2023. 127 bars happens to be the first bar on that Tuesday morning (a “turnaround Tuesday”?), and will be exactly 3 years after the major top before the Covid-crash of Feb/Mach 2020. After that bottom (around 3200ish?) should come a nice big wave B rally that lasts much of 2023, perhaps regaining about half of the bear market fall (so up to 4000), then the bear returns with wave C down. After that would come a wave “X”, then probably another set of ABC waves deeper into the 2020s. Just my musings, wish it was that easy LOL.

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DAV15J
DAV15J

Peter, your favourite chart is NDX, understandably. I would suggest you keep a closer eye on TLT. 2022 has all been about an inflationary stocks crash. 2023, IMO, will be a deflationary stocks crash. Whereas Bonds and stocks have been highly correlated this year that will reverse. I see Yields building yet you are bearish yields / bullish TLT, shortish term. Check if your 120 TLT invalidates. IMO after a correction in yields (up) / TLT (down) the resumption of the new trend will be where huge money is made. From TLT ~98 I'm looking at 130-160 next year.

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