SMC Update 4-3-23

Forgive the lateness and the technical glitches as I work away from the office. Hopefully the message of the update is clear!

Thank you Peter as always. Enjoy your time in Arizona!

brian1469 said:

Thanks Peter for your work especially while you are a way.

Jeff Cooper made some comments that I thought were interesting in his write up that he posted a link to on twitter. He compared the current time period form the low's in October until now to the period November 1929 - April 1930 period.

We have a very close resemblance to them today when you look at the monthly charts. I have been looking for something that looks similar to the market we face now. The move was faster off the top in 1929 compared to 2022 but the percentages look close. What was cool to figure out is the low of 1929 was not broken until almost a year later in 1930.

I could see us have a very similar set up this year peak here in April then finally break the lows in September like it did in 1930. The bear market then went on to lose another 70% into the low finally with a low of 4.40 in June of 1932.

If something similar happens today I could see us landing in the 1300-1400 area in 2025. That would be a bear market I'm not counting on it but it looks like that could be a worst case scenario

Things like this help me be patient. Because you just know a lot of people thought we were on our way to new highs in April 1930 also. Also have issues of trade and war in the news just like 1930

LOOK AT /NQ 96.8/110.6

SAYING the same stuff for 2 thousand .. 6 hunnnndreed points.

New plan is to watch Peters work well after market opening. Otherwise the “short almost daily bias “ is too loud Like I asked yesterday ; “ supposed resistance in SPX is 4126? What happens at 4166? 4227? 4308? 4400?” Well I see futures this am 4167 and Ndx over 13,220. We are up 7 out of 8 days In row. In any 10 day period there WILL be a down day or 2. So , like yesterday the dip gets bought. For the last 20 % NDX move, that has been case. I don’t know how the dips will be “beginnings of down trends or down falls for the market”. not until mid May. Good luck everyone

Last updated 3 years ago

Thanks Peter, 350 sma is a nice add on .

Brian1469- do u think we can get to 4235-4330 range of the 24 cycle projection ? Anything is possible

brian1469 said:

daniel039209 said:

Brian1469- do u think we can get to 4235-4330 range of the 24 cycle projection ? Anything is possible

Daniel I think we pull back here and get to the 24 on the next leg up. That will be the place to short. I shorted here early Friday and will probably close out a lot on the pull back. We are outside Bollinger bands on everything so I see the pull back coming quick along with now hitting the 3/4, 7/8, and 12/13 on all the futures.

Oil is going to be a drag on everything by the end of the month.

I hear you. I just think seasonality and people underinvested and chasing will keep us net net up till when some historical seasonal weakness comes in mid May.

Agreed: XXSPower start posting trade setups: entry price, stop loss price, and price target, let's see if you can actually make a movie or just another bitter movie critic on rotten tomatoes 🍅🎥😂

brian1469 said:

Thanks Peter for your work especially while you are a way.

Jeff Cooper made some comments that I thought were interesting in his write up that he posted a link to on twitter. He compared the current time period form the low's in October until now to the period November 1929 - April 1930 period.

We have a very close resemblance to them today when you look at the monthly charts. I have been looking for something that looks similar to the market we face now. The move was faster off the top in 1929 compared to 2022 but the percentages look close. What was cool to figure out is the low of 1929 was not broken until almost a year later in 1930.

I could see us have a very similar set up this year peak here in April then finally break the lows in September like it did in 1930. The bear market then went on to lose another 70% into the low finally with a low of 4.40 in June of 1932.

If something similar happens today I could see us landing in the 1300-1400 area in 2025. That would be a bear market I'm not counting on it but it looks like that could be a worst case scenario

Things like this help me be patient. Because you just know a lot of people thought we were on our way to new highs in April 1930 also. Also have issues of trade and war in the news just like 1930

Interesting find, thank you! Only thing I would say is market dynamics are so different from even our last recession in 2008, it alone 1928, so I don't know how useful comparisons with different times are. I don't say this to criticize your comment, I just see a lot of people online trying to find comparisons, since the human brain thrives on finding common threads, but who knows!

I Doubled down on CAT Short — In freefall ~Dorothy

Peter, Enjoy family! Your grandson will recharge your batteries. A much deserved quasi vacation. We appreciate the updates at this crucial time while you’re with family. A aspect that comes in tomorrow before open is usually escalation of trend. Another turn date is 4/10-4/12.
~Dorothy

szulc2639 said:

mneese3280 said:

Brian, How could you compare NOW to the great depression? Unemployment, interest rates, a market crash??? If you think it’s the end of the world, your odds are not great. Because it only happens once.

It happened twice in US history where there was a 90% crash in stock prices, and that's not including the so-called Great Recession. Those happened 1084 months apart, it's currently 1089 months from the 1932 bottom.

when was the other one besides the great depression out of curiousity?