SMC Update 3-20-23

thanks Peter !

thanks for the update Peter.

I enjoy it very much each time when you complement cycle projection with good old fashion technical analysis. It is always great to see how all the evidence converge nicely to give us a better clarity and direction.

The trend line you had in place had shown resistance from 12.285-12310 on NDX. We broke above and went to almost 12,600. Not clear how that changed trend line. Plus the DJIA showed a couple days of underperformance and it was intimated that the DJIA is new directional leader. Now it’s the outperformed on way up. Any change in sentiment? Also, no comment on NDX bullish engulfing weekly candle? It all points to higher prices, running out of seasonal weakness period. In my opinion but looking at the breakouts and indices above 200dma

UNBELIEVABLE

Again we don't look at the projections.. Why?

A) @ES 3-5 DAY 4021-4043 " CONFIRMED " thats 50 points you can tell your subs !! to play !!!

B) IF we hit that ( which I am sure has a high % hit rate ) then the 7-8 will give a +ve one too

LETS LOOK AT THE Q'S

A) WOW !!!!!!! 13056 FOR THE /NQ WHADDDA YA KNOW YOU CAN TELL YOUR SUBS !!! TO PLAY !!!! B) IF THAT ^^ HITS THE 24 IS 13400

LETS LOOK AT VIX

A) OH MY .. UNDER 23.

LETS LOOK AT GRAND DADDY DOW

A) 32584 WOW HUNDREDS OF POINTS YOU CAN TELL YOUR SUBS TO PLAY !!! B) 12.1 AND 24 IF IT HITS?

mneese3280 said:

Soon we will have all downside projections invalidated. The Dow is the leader. Clearly impulsive to the upside since the October low. Clearly corrective on the pull back with an abc to the downside side. Buckle up Boyz and Girlz. 3rd wave will take us to the 4400 s&p projection. Dorthy looks like a Santa Cause rally into July!!

Mneese I mentioned I was looking for tradable low March 21-23. Authorities have given banks 90days to clean up act. That pushes big down out to June-August. Watch June 21 & July 11th for potential peaks then down. ~Dorothy

dcarter8883312 said:

mneese3280 said:

Soon we will have all downside projections invalidated. The Dow is the leader. Clearly impulsive to the upside since the October low. Clearly corrective on the pull back with an abc to the downside side. Buckle up Boyz and Girlz. 3rd wave will take us to the 4400 s&p projection. Dorthy looks like a Santa Cause rally into July!!

Mneese I mentioned I was looking for tradable low March 21-23. IF 23rd is peak look for low around 4-11 then rally into June 21st July 11th Peak. As always profiles can flip so watch direction market is going into dates. Authorities have given banks 90days to clean up act. That pushes big down out to June-August. Watch June 21 & July 11th for potential peaks then down. ~Dorothy

dcarter8883312 said:

mneese3280 said:

Soon we will have all downside projections invalidated. The Dow is the leader. Clearly impulsive to the upside since the October low. Clearly corrective on the pull back with an abc to the downside side. Buckle up Boyz and Girlz. 3rd wave will take us to the 4400 s&p projection. Dorthy looks like a Santa Cause rally into July!!

Mneese I mentioned I was looking for tradable low March 21-23. Authorities have given banks 90days to clean up act. That pushes big down out to June-August. Watch June 21 & July 11th for potential peaks then down. ~Dorothy Question; do you think Peter will turn; A) more constructive as the most indices above 200dma ? or B) continue to look for sudden down turn at resistance lines or breaking above the 200dma for only 2,38 days?

LOL !!!! LOOK AT THESE COMMENTS !!! HILARIOUS !!

MOONS, BANKS CLEANING UP SO WE WAIT UNTIL THIS TIME .. TIDES .. TRADING DAYS .. HAHAHAHAA

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW IS THIS

THERE ARE HIGHER PROJECTIONS

LOOK AT THE /NQ WEEKLY 20/20.1 " 14,350 " THATS ONLY ANOTHER 1500 POINTS AWAY .. I KNOW THE PROJECTIONS ARE THERE BUT IGNORE THEM !!! WE ARE GONNA GO TO THE DEPTHS OF HELL !! STRAIGHT DOWN THE TUBE A ROONIE ! LOL

brian1469 said:

We just hit the 3.5/4 upside on the ES at 4021. Got the rally into FED that I have been looking for the last week. I really want to short here but with the FED tomorrow going to wait. Also want to see if we get the 7/8 on the ES

Still short the QQQ and NVDA from Friday.

This rally is doing a great job of letting everybody know the water is safe.

Edit: Got out of my NVDA short at breakeven. Sitting on tons of cash I think they try to push this thing a 100 points up tomorrow on FED day. We should have a pretty good upside projection on the ES today from the 7/8 to fit the narrative

LOL now they hit NVDA since I got out

What ES.z futures are you trading that you see a print at 4021? the high is 3998.7 on my screen ?

morbidbattlecry4199 said:

When people turn on, start saying there is more upside means their short position is hurting them and are about to cover at the top.

New Moon is affecting their judgment. Tomorrow will be 34TD from 2nd Feb 2023 top.

Is it New Moon or 34 trading days that will mark the Top??

News Is Just noise. 4th Jan 2022 was the top when Fed was doing Huge QE then 13 Months latter on 2nd Feb 2023 was the top for Year 2023.

we will not see that high again. 13 Is Fib Number so is 34

does this mean you are negative because you will never see the high in the market again? just curious

I’m not going to get too bullish here because IF Peak comes in March 23-24 which is only 3 trading days—IF my profile is right Peter will be smiling all the way down into April 11th ~Dorothy

how does the N.DX rally 8.5% and spx 5.8% yet i have been looking to short since NDX 12.000, then 12,285, 12,320 was huge resistance last Wednesday. Then it becam huge resistnace 12,500. close 12,741.43 today. what am i interpreting wrong? why am i always hunting for the "turn down and break lower continuum" every morning. i think i will read the update later in day from now on. If you watch the largest companies in the world, they can tell a story.

szulc2639 said:

I looked at the structure of the decline from the 2/2 high in the NDX to see if there's a bearish interpretation of the rally off the 3/13 low being a B wave. First of all according to Eliades Projection the downside is invalidated. B waves typically retrace 90-105% of wave A, and can go up to 1.382%. There seems to be 5 waves down from 2/2 thru 3/13, wave 1=676.77 pts, wave 3=859.25, wave 5=771.47, wave 3 is not the shortest wave in fact it is the longest which is typical in a 5 wave structure. Using the 2/2 high 12,880.98 and the 3/13 low 11695.41 @ 90% (just beyond a Fibonacci 88.66) this retracement is 12,762.42, today's high is 12,762.45, 3 cents beyond 90%. If this is a B wave then that implies a C wave down under the 3/13 low in 5 waves but probably a corrective structure within the October low. If the move exceeds the 2/2 high over 1.382% this interpretation is invalidated, but right now it is in the typical 90-105% retracement area to qualify it as wave B. The maximum NDX can go to at 138.2% = 13,333.87, but this is not the usual range of a B wave, it is an outlier.

You see we have projections to 13,300 right? Maybe the algos are based off of all that Fib % and max pain. If the upside projections are TALKED about with % of them being accurate the followers can make informed decisions. Constantly the web app and the commentary and the web app on Trading view are not in unison.