SMC Update 2-1-23

From the October 3500 lows, that 600 points you were 100% bearish, not just the last two weeks..who you fooling

Hey Peter thanks for the informative update. I agree with the Vix analysis. It seems like we have entered a corrective phase perhaps the sell off in 2022 was a wave 1 and we are in a wave 2 correction now, and when wave 3 hits between March and June, we should see the S&P join the Nasdaq in its weekly major downside projection. I am with you and the Vix analysis of how it always has characteristics starting a new bull market is not where we are at.
I think if anything the affect of the Fed is that it manipulates, manipulates, manipulates and this has an effect of an extended crash instead of a quick one. I don't know but I think it has somewhat of a cyclical effect maybe further translating the cycle length of other things because of the extended manipulation of money printing and interest rates. But I am with you 100% and after the fact it will all make sense. The hard part is ignoring the optimism emotions and realizing at the height of feeling 100% confident of a bull market is usually when it turns. I think Cramer actually gave the signal the other day that we are in a bear market when he said something like a new bull market has begun. He is usually a good contrarian indicator :-)

Peter,

In my experience, engaging with trolls only makes the problem worse. They feed off of negative attention.

There is a bit of fire in your voice today. We're living through historic times in the market and your analysis has been eerily good throughout.

"I've been bearish for the last couple of weeks". 😂

Do not fight your own system Peter, the SPX Projection to 4.3-4.5 k has been given over 2 months ago.

Bloomberg: Lots of ESH shorts covering per CME. Tomorrow we can get today’s Open Interest to see if more longs being put on or more shorts buying to cover.

My profile shows 2-3 Peak and Big down day tomorrow a slightly lower 2-6 one day rally 2-7, 2-9 down up on 2-10 then down making short term low 2-9 chop into 2-14, 2-21 up Feb 24 down into 2-28. No promises we will see.

Worth Noting Big Divergence with DJIA & DJ Utilities have not taking out Dec 13th highs.

AMZN, AAPL & GOOGL All getting hammered in aftermarket disappointing earnings. We may see the big down day tomorrow my profile projects.

Kit097 said:

Several gurus have said if there is a decline, it would be around CPI which is February 14th. They look at option flows and the reason why VIX is so low is because people are hedging with 0 DTE options instead. There are still too many puts out there that it is putting a floor in the market. So maybe we rollover and then decline.

Are you saying that because VIX calculates the amount of projected volatility in the next 30 days based on calls and puts that have been bought/sold and that people are mostly using 0 days to hedge instead of index options like before, that the VIX is no longer able to properly calculate forward projected volatility? That makes sense in my head but I could totally have misunderstood.