SMC Update 10-26-22

Peter thank you again for all your hard work. Please could you analyse BTC/USD using your projection methodology.

Good news all upside projections are basically met. I think the tell is once we break the Oct low whenever that happens, around 350 to 357 on SPY we should shortly start the crash about a week later as the Vix goes above 50 the range should kick up we should have a few strong rallies that work out to be big sideways moves overall in 3500 to 3700 range, 200 points a day then we should crack, and crash should last about a month longer than covid crash. This will be the 3rd wave down about to happen for Elliot Wave as this one during a crash has the Vix between 80 and 100 and doesn't happen that high in the 5th wave which should not take place until June with a really long 4th wave. Anyway that is the "weather forecast" now let's see what really happens.
The trigger though the crash is starting is the break of Oct lows, then a pick up in Vix and price range with huge sell offs and huge rallys for about a week before it tanks.

jshemanski49196 said:

sarvalokeshdh2942 said:

ES 7/8 offset has not yet met - 3975-3972 and NQ 7/8 upside projection

I am seeing the same higher projections on the web app from the homepage, see below. So, why are we once again looking for a top?? An additional question, how does the web app differ from the software, if at all?

https://www.stockmarketcycles.com/indicators/eliades-cycle-price-projections-web

I have the same question. Also the Web part probably is not getting updated daily

Last updated 4 years ago

spencerdavis2000 said:

Good news all upside projections are basically met. I think the tell is once we break the Oct low whenever that happens, around 350 to 357 on SPY we should shortly start the crash about a week later as the Vix goes above 50 the range should kick up we should have a few strong rallies that work out to be big sideways moves overall in 3500 to 3700 range, 200 points a day then we should crack, and crash should last about a month longer than covid crash. This will be the 3rd wave down about to happen for Elliot Wave as this one during a crash has the Vix between 80 and 100 and doesn't happen that high in the 5th wave which should not take place until June with a really long 4th wave. Anyway that is the "weather forecast" now let's see what really happens.
The trigger though the crash is starting is the break of Oct lows, then a pick up in Vix and price range with huge sell offs and huge rallys for about a week before it tanks.

Spencer, Thanks for the commentary. When we break the lows what kind of plays are looking at to capitalize on the crash? Also, what is your downside projection for the spy on the 3rd wave?

Last updated 4 years ago

jshemanski49196 said:

jshemanski49196 said:

sarvalokeshdh2942 said:

ES 7/8 offset has not yet met - 3975-3972 and NQ 7/8 upside projection

I am seeing the same higher projections on the web app from the homepage, per the link below. So, why are we once again looking for a top?? An additional question, how does the web app differ from the software, if at all? It looks to me like the IWM (Russell) also broke through the upper end of the continuum at 178.86 shown for 10/26 on the 24.2/27.6 offset, so shouldn't we have higher projections??

https://www.stockmarketcycles.com/indicators/eliades-cycle-price-projections-web

Last updated 4 years ago

Doji is a very reliable pattern especially when it occurs at overbought market conditions and the one formed on NDX looks ominous. Plus, the S&P500 Globex hit the upper end of the pitchfork drawn on the long term decline. The market is obviously overbought with blue ice failure (50d EMA). One cannot ask for a better technical set-up.

bbrentpb465 said:

Yadunath said:

Doji is a very reliable pattern especially when it occurs at overbought market conditions and the one formed on NDX looks ominous. Plus, the S&P500 Globex hit the upper end of the pitchfork drawn on the long term decline. The market is obviously overbought with blue ice failure (50d EMA). One cannot ask for a better technical set-up.

What% of time is it accurate?

Doji appearing in an over bought condition is a reliable signal. If a Doji appears without a confirmation of overbought condition then I don't set much store by it. Whoever produced a statistic, I don't know whether they additionally filtered it for overbought/ oversold condition. I haven't conducted a study to give you numbers, but I have time and again seen that reversals are often accompanied by a Doji.

Does anyone have the upside number and time that would invalidate the down move? Peter had not gone over this

hbout562256 said:

Does anyone have the upside number and time that would invalidate the down move? Peter had not gone over this

It looks to me like the SPY will confirm sharply higher projections up to around 4200 unless there is an immediate down move, as Peter alluded to in this video. If these projections are confirmed, will the lower 484.4/55.3 projections be invalidated? It looks awfully close to me, but would like to get Peter's take (i.e., the rectangle that he's used previously). We need to simply report what the software is indicating without always missing these rallies due to a bearish bias, IMO.

Last updated 4 years ago