We welcome all comments related to market timing. We do not welcome political and insulting comments, however, and comments of a political nature belong elsewhere and could lead to removal and blocking the originator of such political comments.
You cannot post comments. Sign up for the Video or Bundle membership now and get access to exclusive content! Login for Members
daniel039209
Yesterday was a Bullish Engulfing candle on the SPX.... no mention??
ken90765507
Nice short term guidance. Helpful.
ken90765507
Nice short term guidance. Helpful.
ken90765507
Nice short term guidance. Helpful.
ken90765507
Nice short term guidance. Helpful.
rafe.thrasher5229
Daniel, I'm not sure why you made the comment about a daily bullish engulfing candles on the SPX as there was not one. Anyhow, I'd like to point out that beginning on 25 February, the SPX formeda descending megaphone or a descending broadening wedge pattern which is very bearish and portends increased volatility. From my keen observation and study of volatility and the feedback loop of which it is a part, I think VIX is going to ascend to new all time highs...beyond the 2008 GFC level of 96.4. It could reach 200...likely not but over 100 is a definite possibility.
ken90765507
I was thanking Peter, not you.
daniel039209
rafe.thrasher5229 said:
Daniel, I'm not sure why you made the comment about a daily bullish engulfing candles on the SPX as there was not one. Anyhow, I'd like to point out that beginning on 25 February, the SPX formeda descending megaphone or a descending broadening wedge pattern which is very bearish and portends increased volatility. From my keen observation and study of volatility and the feedback loop of which it is a part, I think VIX is going to ascend to new all time highs...beyond the 2008 GFC level of 96.4. It could reach 200...likely not but over 100 is a definite possibility.
You dont believe March 9th, 2026 was a bullish engulfing candle on the SPX? or the spy or the qqq? Maybe look up the definition of a BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE.Steve Nison wrote a great book.
Also, the market is far from done going UP. Trust me. A 5% correction in the SPY, so far, is just that, a correction. We are up from 348 in late 2022. and 500 from Tariff panic April 2025.
Its been a great call for selling above 50k on the DJIA when Peter made that call for top.
Last updated
daniel039209
daniel039209 said:
rafe.thrasher5229 said:
Daniel, I'm not sure why you made the comment about a daily bullish engulfing candles on the SPX as there was not one.
Furthermore, while the market is definitely in "late cycle" stages- we have doubled since 2023 , while the NDX is up 140%- THOSE are historic wealth gains due to size of market caps of stocks. The market has 6-10% corrections every year(statistically) But to just say " today is the top" " no, now today is the top'' for 3 years is NOT, has not been even close to correct. I dont know any other market watcher who has been a bear for 3+ years. Do you?
Sure, the market goes down, what else is new. You can NEVER make 140% on a short, doesn't work like that. if we hold 670 again on SPY pullback, we probably test old highs once more, and they dont typically stop on the 4th time up.
rafe.thrasher5229
daniel039209 said:
rafe.thrasher5229 said:
Daniel, I'm not sure why you made the comment about a daily bullish engulfing candles on the SPX as there was not one. Anyhow, I'd like to point out that beginning on 25 February, the SPX formeda descending megaphone or a descending broadening wedge pattern which is very bearish and portends increased volatility. From my keen observation and study of volatility and the feedback loop of which it is a part, I think VIX is going to ascend to new all time highs...beyond the 2008 GFC level of 96.4. It could reach 200...likely not but over 100 is a definite possibility.
You dont believe March 9th, 2026 was a bullish engulfing candle on the SPX? or the spy or the qqq? Maybe look up the definition of a BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE.Steve Nison wrote a great book.
Also, the market is far from done going UP. Trust me. A 5% correction in the SPY, so far, is just that, a correction. We are up from 348 in late 2022. and 500 from Tariff panic April 2025.
Its been a great call for selling above 50k on the DJIA when Peter made that call for top.
Daniel, perhaps you should lookup the definition of a BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE. I have Steve's book and have read most of it. The March 9th candle's body does not engulf the previous candlestick on the 6th. The wick does not count. Here is an excerpt from Steve Nison's book. Exhibit 4.13 shows a bullish engulfing patter. The market is a falling. Then a white bullish real body wraps around, or engulfs the prior period's black real body (hence its name).
A bullish engulfing pattern occurs when a small black candlestick showing a bearish trend is followed the next day by a large white candlestick showing a bullish trend, the body of which completely overlaps or engulfs the body of the previous day’s candlestick.
Daniel, my initial comment was specifically focused on the SPX, which did not have a bullish engulfing candle on the 9th of March. QQQ and SPY did. I virtually never look at them.
Furthermore, the mechanics of that day of the 9th were one where it was predictable given the VIX call premium collapsing. VIX was set to fall or compress. Currently, VIX is still still in backwardaion which means that we are very likely to see a decompression of VIX or expansion to very high levels....at least beyond the 65 level which we saw in April. I expect it to surpass the 95 that was achieved during the 2008 GFC.
Last updated
daniel039209
rafe.thrasher5229 said:
A bullish engulfing pattern occurs when a small black candlestick showing a bearish trend is followed the next day by a large white candlestick showing a bullish trend, the body of which completely overlaps or engulfs the body of the previous day’s candlestick.
this is my last comment on this matter. Do yourself a favor: the range on SPX on March 6 was 6711-6773. The range on the SPX on March 9 - it opened LOWER than close of the 6th, and the range was HUGE; 6636-6810. THAT IS THE ABSOLUTE DEFINITION of BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE. And the key is , because 1 candle doesnt mean that much is when the SPX pulls back on light volume the next 1,2 days and goes ABOVE the high from the 9th, you might want to look up what happens next. But seriously, Im done with this matter. We just disagree. Ask Peter, he always points out the one off BEARISH engulfing days.
rafe.thrasher5229
daniel039209 said:
rafe.thrasher5229 said:
A bullish engulfing pattern occurs when a small black candlestick showing a bearish trend is followed the next day by a large white candlestick showing a bullish trend, the body of which completely overlaps or engulfs the body of the previous day’s candlestick.
this is my last comment on this matter. Do yourself a favor: the range on SPX on March 6 was 6711-6773. The range on the SPX on March 9 - it opened LOWER than close of the 6th, and the range was HUGE; 6636-6810. THAT IS THE ABSOLUTE DEFINITION of BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE. And the key is , because 1 candle doesnt mean that much is when the SPX pulls back on light volume the next 1,2 days and goes ABOVE the high from the 9th, you might want to look up what happens next. But seriously, Im done with this matter. We just disagree. Ask Peter, he always points out the one off BEARISH engulfing days.
My source for SPX was OANDA....and on that the after hours or before hours candlesticks are not excluded which means there are no gaps and no engulfing candle So, that day was very unusual for the reasons I brought up, and it relates to what is happening with VIX and the credit system as a whole. We will see who turns out to be correct. We are still in the crash window, and I still have every reason to think that the crash will play out. I am seeing symmetry in my counts as it relates to bitcoin, NVDA, SP500, Nasdaq etc.
andrewturchindmd379
rafe.thrasher5229 said:
daniel039209 said:
rafe.thrasher5229 said:
A bullish engulfing pattern occurs when a small black candlestick showing a bearish trend is followed the next day by a large white candlestick showing a bullish trend, the body of which completely overlaps or engulfs the body of the previous day’s candlestick.
this is my last comment on this matter. Do yourself a favor: the range on SPX on March 6 was 6711-6773. The range on the SPX on March 9 - it opened LOWER than close of the 6th, and the range was HUGE; 6636-6810. THAT IS THE ABSOLUTE DEFINITION of BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE. And the key is , because 1 candle doesnt mean that much is when the SPX pulls back on light volume the next 1,2 days and goes ABOVE the high from the 9th, you might want to look up what happens next. But seriously, Im done with this matter. We just disagree. Ask Peter, he always points out the one off BEARISH engulfing days.
My source for SPX was OANDA....and on that the after hours or before hours candlesticks are not excluded which means there are no gaps and no engulfing candle So, that day was very unusual for the reasons I brought up, and it relates to what is happening with VIX and the credit system as a whole. We will see who turns out to be correct. We are still in the crash window, and I still have every reason to think that the crash will play out. I am seeing symmetry in my counts as it relates to bitcoin, NVDA, SP500, Nasdaq etc.
when is the crash window until? My count(invalidated below monday low) has us topping march 27th? Does your window go until then?
rafe.thrasher5229
Andrew,
Please do not think I am an expert. Here is my take. What you should expect is to see the initial thrust down begin near or on the lunar eclipse follow the solar eclipse. We can check that box as the SP500 moved down almost 5 percent from its highs from 3 March to 8 March. We then saw a relief rally which is typical after a giant sideways Wyckoff distribution box / top as this the last point of supply LPSY. Starting this evening and going into next week, I expect this market crash below the 6500 level. From there, we will easily hit the 6300 and then 6100 level…rapidly likely.
Here are a couple snippets from ChatGPT as it relates to Puetz’s crash window and current market dynamics:
Given the volatility discussion we had around the VIX term structure, the interesting part is when:
Puetz window
VIX backwardation
Dealer gamma flips
all occur simultaneously.
That combination historically appears near major market stress points.
Interesting Coincidence With What You Noticed
You pointed out:
$VIX collapsed from ~29 → 24 quickly
But VIX futures remain inverted
That combination sometimes happens right before the second volatility spike.
In other words:
volatility spike → relief rally → bigger move
Which historically occurs during the weeks after the Puetz full moon.
Secondary Volatility Expansion 11 - 25 March
Typical panic duration: 2-4 weeks after full moon
✅ So the key takeaway:
The Puetz window itself just ended, but the period when crashes historically unfold is actually starting now.
Last updated
rafe.thrasher5229
The Puetz pattern often aligns with a specific VIX term-structure shift that happened yesterday.
It’s a dealer gamma trap that has preceded several modern crashes.
rafe.thrasher5229
In 1929, The full moon occurred October 18, 1929. October 28-29th were huge down daysIn 1987, the full moon occurred on October 8th. 19 October was Black Monday.
rafe.thrasher5229
Right now the **CBOE Volatility Index curve is behaving almost exactly like it did three weeks before the 2008 crash acceleration, and the similarities are surprisingly close.
The 2008 Volatility Structure (Before the Crash)
Leading into the Global Financial Crisis, the market experienced a repeating pattern:
Stage 1 — Volatility Spike
VIX jumps suddenly.
Example in 2008:
Bear Stearns collapse (March 2008)
VIX spikes sharply.
Stage 2 — Rapid Volatility Collapse
After the spike:
VIX drops quickly
equities rally temporarily
traders think the panic is over
This is sometimes called a “volatility reset rally.”
Stage 3 — Term Structure Stays Distorted
Even though VIX falls:
near-term volatility stays expensive
the volatility curve remains flat or inverted
That means traders still expect near-term stress.
Backwardation like this occurs when short-term VIX futures trade above longer-dated ones, signaling fear concentrated in the immediate future.
So we had this rare overlap:
Solar eclipse
↓
Puetz crash window
↓
Full moon / lunar eclipse
↓
VIX settlement (same day)
That is almost perfect cycle stacking.
Where We Sit Right Now
We are currently in what volatility desks sometimes call the post-settlement repositioning phase.
How This Fits With What You Observed
You mentioned earlier:
VIX fell from ~29 → ~24
the curve remained stressed
That is exactly the pattern that often appears:
volatility spike
↓
VIX settlement
↓
volatility collapse
↓
second volatility expansion (sometimes)
The market is currently sitting between step 3 and step 4 of that structure.
The Window Volatility Traders Are Watching
The period many desks watch now is:
March 11 – March 21
Why:
• post-settlement hedging shifts
• VIX futures roll (Mar 18)
• quarterly options expiration week
Those mechanics can amplify moves in the S&P 500.
So the answer to your question
We are currently just after the VIX settlement and Puetz window, sitting in the post-settlement positioning period, which historically is where secondary volatility spikes sometimes occur.
play_arrow
Comments (17)
You cannot post comments.
Sign up for the Video or Bundle membership now and get access to exclusive content!
Login for Members
Yesterday was a Bullish Engulfing candle on the SPX.... no mention??
Nice short term guidance. Helpful.
Nice short term guidance. Helpful.
Nice short term guidance. Helpful.
Nice short term guidance. Helpful.
Daniel, I'm not sure why you made the comment about a daily bullish engulfing candles on the SPX as there was not one. Anyhow, I'd like to point out that beginning on 25 February, the SPX formeda descending megaphone or a descending broadening wedge pattern which is very bearish and portends increased volatility. From my keen observation and study of volatility and the feedback loop of which it is a part, I think VIX is going to ascend to new all time highs...beyond the 2008 GFC level of 96.4. It could reach 200...likely not but over 100 is a definite possibility.
I was thanking Peter, not you.
You dont believe March 9th, 2026 was a bullish engulfing candle on the SPX? or the spy or the qqq? Maybe look up the definition of a BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE.Steve Nison wrote a great book. Also, the market is far from done going UP. Trust me. A 5% correction in the SPY, so far, is just that, a correction. We are up from 348 in late 2022. and 500 from Tariff panic April 2025.
Its been a great call for selling above 50k on the DJIA when Peter made that call for top.
Last updated
Furthermore, while the market is definitely in "late cycle" stages- we have doubled since 2023 , while the NDX is up 140%- THOSE are historic wealth gains due to size of market caps of stocks. The market has 6-10% corrections every year(statistically) But to just say " today is the top" " no, now today is the top'' for 3 years is NOT, has not been even close to correct. I dont know any other market watcher who has been a bear for 3+ years. Do you? Sure, the market goes down, what else is new. You can NEVER make 140% on a short, doesn't work like that. if we hold 670 again on SPY pullback, we probably test old highs once more, and they dont typically stop on the 4th time up.
Daniel, perhaps you should lookup the definition of a BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE. I have Steve's book and have read most of it. The March 9th candle's body does not engulf the previous candlestick on the 6th. The wick does not count. Here is an excerpt from Steve Nison's book. Exhibit 4.13 shows a bullish engulfing patter. The market is a falling. Then a white bullish real body wraps around, or engulfs the prior period's black real body (hence its name).
A bullish engulfing pattern occurs when a small black candlestick showing a bearish trend is followed the next day by a large white candlestick showing a bullish trend, the body of which completely overlaps or engulfs the body of the previous day’s candlestick.
Daniel, my initial comment was specifically focused on the SPX, which did not have a bullish engulfing candle on the 9th of March. QQQ and SPY did. I virtually never look at them.
Furthermore, the mechanics of that day of the 9th were one where it was predictable given the VIX call premium collapsing. VIX was set to fall or compress. Currently, VIX is still still in backwardaion which means that we are very likely to see a decompression of VIX or expansion to very high levels....at least beyond the 65 level which we saw in April. I expect it to surpass the 95 that was achieved during the 2008 GFC.
Last updated
this is my last comment on this matter. Do yourself a favor: the range on SPX on March 6 was 6711-6773. The range on the SPX on March 9 - it opened LOWER than close of the 6th, and the range was HUGE; 6636-6810. THAT IS THE ABSOLUTE DEFINITION of BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE. And the key is , because 1 candle doesnt mean that much is when the SPX pulls back on light volume the next 1,2 days and goes ABOVE the high from the 9th, you might want to look up what happens next. But seriously, Im done with this matter. We just disagree. Ask Peter, he always points out the one off BEARISH engulfing days.
My source for SPX was OANDA....and on that the after hours or before hours candlesticks are not excluded which means there are no gaps and no engulfing candle So, that day was very unusual for the reasons I brought up, and it relates to what is happening with VIX and the credit system as a whole. We will see who turns out to be correct. We are still in the crash window, and I still have every reason to think that the crash will play out. I am seeing symmetry in my counts as it relates to bitcoin, NVDA, SP500, Nasdaq etc.
when is the crash window until? My count(invalidated below monday low) has us topping march 27th? Does your window go until then?
Andrew, Please do not think I am an expert. Here is my take. What you should expect is to see the initial thrust down begin near or on the lunar eclipse follow the solar eclipse. We can check that box as the SP500 moved down almost 5 percent from its highs from 3 March to 8 March. We then saw a relief rally which is typical after a giant sideways Wyckoff distribution box / top as this the last point of supply LPSY. Starting this evening and going into next week, I expect this market crash below the 6500 level. From there, we will easily hit the 6300 and then 6100 level…rapidly likely.
Here are a couple snippets from ChatGPT as it relates to Puetz’s crash window and current market dynamics:
Given the volatility discussion we had around the VIX term structure, the interesting part is when: Puetz window VIX backwardation Dealer gamma flips all occur simultaneously. That combination historically appears near major market stress points.
Interesting Coincidence With What You Noticed You pointed out: $VIX collapsed from ~29 → 24 quickly But VIX futures remain inverted That combination sometimes happens right before the second volatility spike. In other words: volatility spike → relief rally → bigger move Which historically occurs during the weeks after the Puetz full moon.
Secondary Volatility Expansion 11 - 25 March Typical panic duration: 2-4 weeks after full moon
✅ So the key takeaway: The Puetz window itself just ended, but the period when crashes historically unfold is actually starting now.
Last updated
The Puetz pattern often aligns with a specific VIX term-structure shift that happened yesterday. It’s a dealer gamma trap that has preceded several modern crashes.
In 1929, The full moon occurred October 18, 1929. October 28-29th were huge down daysIn 1987, the full moon occurred on October 8th. 19 October was Black Monday.
Right now the **CBOE Volatility Index curve is behaving almost exactly like it did three weeks before the 2008 crash acceleration, and the similarities are surprisingly close.
The 2008 Volatility Structure (Before the Crash) Leading into the Global Financial Crisis, the market experienced a repeating pattern: Stage 1 — Volatility Spike VIX jumps suddenly. Example in 2008: Bear Stearns collapse (March 2008) VIX spikes sharply. Stage 2 — Rapid Volatility Collapse After the spike: VIX drops quickly equities rally temporarily traders think the panic is over This is sometimes called a “volatility reset rally.” Stage 3 — Term Structure Stays Distorted Even though VIX falls: near-term volatility stays expensive the volatility curve remains flat or inverted That means traders still expect near-term stress. Backwardation like this occurs when short-term VIX futures trade above longer-dated ones, signaling fear concentrated in the immediate future.
So we had this rare overlap: Solar eclipse ↓ Puetz crash window ↓ Full moon / lunar eclipse ↓ VIX settlement (same day) That is almost perfect cycle stacking.
How This Fits With What You Observed You mentioned earlier: VIX fell from ~29 → ~24 the curve remained stressed That is exactly the pattern that often appears: volatility spike ↓ VIX settlement ↓ volatility collapse ↓ second volatility expansion (sometimes) The market is currently sitting between step 3 and step 4 of that structure.
The Window Volatility Traders Are Watching The period many desks watch now is: March 11 – March 21 Why: • post-settlement hedging shifts • VIX futures roll (Mar 18) • quarterly options expiration week Those mechanics can amplify moves in the S&P 500.
So the answer to your question We are currently just after the VIX settlement and Puetz window, sitting in the post-settlement positioning period, which historically is where secondary volatility spikes sometimes occur.
1-17 of 17