Dear Peter I wish you a wonderful New Year for you and your great family together with utmost health and happiness.Also I thank you for your work that has helped me well. Best regards, A.

Thanks Peter wishing you a Happy New Year

So, this day, you're saying that this has the "possibility of a market top"? Had you not said that very same thing for the last 14 months, it might have some weight. The evidence you offered for 14 months meant almost nothing. Actually , encouraged the room to always look for the top, look for the 56% decline , look for another 2000 or 2008 or my gosh, 2020-Covid related selloff,NONE of which had similarities to 2023 market valuations/real estate crises or my gosh, COVID hitting the world. It became a "bear echo chamber" save for a few that tried to point out various NOT bearish developments. You fought against every offer of bullish possibilities. I know at end of OCtober, you pointed out my "IWM already had a -34% Bear market, why wouldnt it be bottoming soon?" just said " it can go alot lower like 2008, like 2003" But it rallied 18%. in 6 weeks.
" Do you think you will be bearish for 2024?? Just curious. What part of the market metrics do you find bearish( as we sit at all time highs)? tyia

daniel039209 said:

So, this day, you're saying that this has the "possibility of a market top"? Had you not said that very same thing for the last 14 months, it might have some weight. The evidence you offered for 14 months meant almost nothing. Actually , encouraged the room to always look for the top, look for the 56% decline , look for another 2000 or 2008 or my gosh, 2020-Covid related selloff,NONE of which had similarities to 2023 market valuations/real estate crises or my gosh, COVID hitting the world. It became a "bear echo chamber" save for a few that tried to point out various NOT bearish developments. You fought against every offer of bullish possibilities. I know at end of OCtober, you pointed out my "IWM already had a -34% Bear market, why wouldnt it be bottoming soon?" just said " it can go alot lower like 2008, like 2003" But it rallied 18%. in 6 weeks.
" Do you think you will be bearish for 2024?? Just curious. What part of the market metrics do you find bearish( as we sit at all time highs)? tyia

Daniel: Classical Dow Theory as an example would still provide some support to the bearish case. DJIA has broken out to new all-time highs, while DJTA has not, and does NOT appear to be in a position to do so, in the short-term. Classical Dow Theory isn't as popular these days, as it once was, because it largely represents the "old economy", not the high-tech Magnificent 7 that we usually focus upon these days. But, it does continue to have some value in forecasting market turning points, and right now, is flagging a caution signal.

I personally think we're only seeing an intermediate / minor top here, not a major top, thus representing a potential "buy the dip" opportunity. Overall, I think the evidence of a major top is weak, and we are seeing indications using the SMC cycle projection technique, that continuations of current trends are indeed possible. The complicating factor may be the fact that 2024 is an election year, who knows what "political interference" may complicate market price action, either up-or-down?

CS37 said:

daniel039209 said:

So, this day, you're saying that this has the "possibility of a market top"? Had you not said that very same thing for the last 14 months, it might have some weight. The evidence you offered for 14 months meant almost nothing. Actually , encouraged the room to always look for the top, look for the 56% decline , look for another 2000 or 2008 or my gosh, 2020-Covid related selloff,NONE of which had similarities to 2023 market valuations/real estate crises or my gosh, COVID hitting the world. It became a "bear echo chamber" save for a few that tried to point out various NOT bearish developments. You fought against every offer of bullish possibilities. I know at end of OCtober, you pointed out my "IWM already had a -34% Bear market, why wouldnt it be bottoming soon?" just said " it can go alot lower like 2008, like 2003" But it rallied 18%. in 6 weeks.
" Do you think you will be bearish for 2024?? Just curious. What part of the market metrics do you find bearish( as we sit at all time highs)? tyia

Daniel: Classical Dow Theory as an example would still provide some support to the bearish case. DJIA has broken out to new all-time highs, while DJTA has not, and does NOT appear to be in a position to do so, in the short-term. Classical Dow Theory isn't as popular these days, as it once was, because it largely represents the "old economy", not the high-tech Magnificent 7 that we usually focus upon these days. But, it does continue to have some value in forecasting market turning points, and right now, is flagging a caution signal.

I personally think we're only seeing an intermediate / minor top here, not a major top, thus representing a potential "buy the dip" opportunity. Overall, I think the evidence of a major top is weak, and we are seeing indications using the SMC cycle projection technique, that continuations of current trends are indeed possible. The complicating factor may be the fact that 2024 is an election year, who knows what "political interference" may complicate market price action, either up, -or-down?

CS, I appreciate your response. I think it would be very helpful for some consolidation/pullback into Jan 2024 before the rally continues. I am more equity focused but the US dollar has been one of the best "risk on /off" signals. When it tops and is in downtrend, its been very positive for stocks( as it should be). Im watching if there is a counter trend US dollar rally that would pressure stocks in short term. Have a good new year!

daniel039209 said:

CS37 said:

daniel039209 said:

So, this day, you're saying that this has the "possibility of a market top"? Had you not said that very same thing for the last 14 months, it might have some weight. The evidence you offered for 14 months meant almost nothing. Actually , encouraged the room to always look for the top, look for the 56% decline , look for another 2000 or 2008 or my gosh, 2020-Covid related selloff,NONE of which had similarities to 2023 market valuations/real estate crises or my gosh, COVID hitting the world. It became a "bear echo chamber" save for a few that tried to point out various NOT bearish developments. You fought against every offer of bullish possibilities. I know at end of OCtober, you pointed out my "IWM already had a -34% Bear market, why wouldnt it be bottoming soon?" just said " it can go alot lower like 2008, like 2003" But it rallied 18%. in 6 weeks.
" Do you think you will be bearish for 2024?? Just curious. What part of the market metrics do you find bearish( as we sit at all time highs)? tyia

Daniel: Classical Dow Theory as an example would still provide some support to the bearish case. DJIA has broken out to new all-time highs, while DJTA has not, and does NOT appear to be in a position to do so, in the short-term. Classical Dow Theory isn't as popular these days, as it once was, because it largely represents the "old economy", not the high-tech Magnificent 7 that we usually focus upon these days. But, it does continue to have some value in forecasting market turning points, and right now, is flagging a caution signal.

I personally think we're only seeing an intermediate / minor top here, not a major top, thus representing a potential "buy the dip" opportunity. Overall, I think the evidence of a major top is weak, and we are seeing indications using the SMC cycle projection technique, that continuations of current trends are indeed possible. The complicating factor may be the fact that 2024 is an election year, who knows what "political interference" may complicate market price action, either up, -or-down?

CS, I appreciate your response. I think it would be very helpful for some consolidation/pullback into Jan 2024 before the rally continues. I am more equity focused but the US dollar has been one of the best "risk on /off" signals. When it tops and is in downtrend, its been very positive for stocks( as it should be). Im watching if there is a counter trend US dollar rally that would pressure stocks in short term. Have a good new year!

Daniel: I share your view on USD, and the implications for equities. Too soon to say for sure, but DXY on Web App is starting to show further preliminary downside projections, and has to reverse quickly for this not to be confirmed. So, kind of a "now-or-never" for a reversal of the downtrend in USD.

Have a Happy New Year!

Wish you best to you and your familiy.

Lets leave behind 23 and make 2024 memorable and prosperous.