Stockmarket Cycles update for Tuesday, April 19th

We are looking for two or three specific signs to tell us whether the market's short-term trend has turned up again. First, we can look at the 10 day moving average of the closing tick figure on the New York Stock Exchange. A single-day closing tick figure tomorrow above 865 would turn the 10 day moving average into positive territory once again.
 
The second factor we will watch is the New 10 TRIN on the New York Stock Exchange. A large positive day tomorrow could turn the New 10 TRIN on the New York Stock Exchange positive by moving it below 1.00.
 
But the most important factor of all, as it should almost always be, is price itself. We will use the simplistic but effective tool we used for exit from the Rydex S&P 500 2X Strategy Fund, namely the exponential 10 day moving average of that index. Two consecutive closes above that 10 day exponential moving average would strongly suggest the trend has turned positive once again. That moving average closed today at 1316.75, around four S&P points above today's close.
 
We could get an early indication tomorrow that that exponential moving average is about to be convincingly surpassed, at least intraday, because if the first half-hour of trading tomorrow ends with the Dow and the S&P in positive territory, then higher intraday projections will have been given and confirmed. The projection for the S&P 500 Composite Index would call for an intraday high between 1326.08-1328.85 while the equivalent Dow projection would call for an intraday high between 12,412-12,433.
 
The McClellan Oscillator closed today at -81.2 with the McClellan Summation Index at +2458.8. The ratio adjusted McClellan Oscillator closed at -26.6 with its Summation Index at +482.3. The CI/NCI ratio closed at 1.066 with the S&P ratio at 1.055. Here are today's Trading Index moving averages:

Single-day	0.84
10 day	1.11
Open 10	1.00
New 10	1.13
Open 30	1.06
TRIN 5	6.74