 |
|
|
|
(Daily Phone Updates for the market are available with a subscription to Stockmarket Cycles. The following is a previous Daily Phone Update.) Stockmarket Cycles update for Monday, March 12th Two of the most broadly based high capitalization market indexes, the New York Composite Index and the S&P Super 1500 Index which is comprised of the S&P 500, the S&P Midcap 400 and the S&P Small Cap 600 stocks combined, stalled today at the closes accomplished in the one day snap back rally of February 28th, the day after the panic decline of February 27th. That, in itself, could provide some resistance but the closing prices of February 28th were especially important today because closes above those levels for either index would have confirmed higher nominal 20 day projections. The fact that that did not occur today leaves open the possibility that today was a recovery high close prior to another market decline. For that reason, tomorrow is important because higher closes tomorrow will indeed confirm higher nominal 20 day projections. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has already confirmed a higher nominal 20 day upside projection to 12,475-12,510 on an intraday basis. We would not put too much faith in that projection, however, until it is confirmed by higher nominal 20 day projections from other indexes. A higher close on the S&P cash index tomorrow would confirm intraday projections to the area of 1425-1435 on that index. The McClellan Oscillator closed today at + 24.0 with the McClellan Summation index at + 2,600.6. The ratio adjusted McClellan Oscillator closed at + 7.4 with its Summation index at + 485.6. The CI/NCI ratio closed at 1.069. Here are today's Trading Index moving averages:
That 4.68 reading on TRIN 5 is the most overbought reading on that indicator since February 20th, the exact day of the closing all-time high on the New York Composite Index. It is hard to say whether that will have any effect because the simple 10 TRIN still has a historically high oversold reading because the single day calculation of February 27th is still included in the 10 day total. Mutual-fund switchers-- both Rydex and Fidelity Select switchers are in 100% cash positions. All mutual-fund switchers should call the telephone update each market day after 3:20 p.m. Eastern time and each market evening. Stock-index futures traders- your signal to sell short occurred at 2:30 p.m. Eastern time. The low average price of the futures over the next three minutes was 1,322.80 which we will use as our entry price. Continue to use any hourly or half hourly S&P cash reading above 1,326.80 as a signal to exit that short position. There are no new projections for the gold complex or the bonds. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow. This page updated on 3/13/07 |
|
Copyright © 1998 - 20006 Stockmarket Cycles |