In the May 4, 1998 edition of Barron's, Peter Eliades wrote an article describing his "Sign of the Bear" indicator which gave a signal in early April 1998. Within a few weeks of the signal, The Value Line Composite Geometric Index, arguably one of the most accurate indicators of the performance of an average investor's portfolio, reached a new all-time high. To this date (March 2004), that high has not been surpassed on the Value Line Composite Geometric Index. Since the "Sign of the Bear" signal in 1998, another signal was given in September 2000 within days of the all-time high in the NY Composite Index. That high also remains the all-time high to this date. The market action after September 2000 in the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 makes it clear that the September 2000 signal was another fabulous success for the "Sign of the Bear."

The two articles below were prepared in 1998. The first link is the unedited article written on our development of the "Sign of the Bear" indicator.The second link is the revised indicator as described in the Barron's May 4, 1998 edition.