Stockmarket Cycles update for Friday, May 2nd

The stock market remains at a fascinating juncture. Right after the opening this morning the Dow appeared to be breaking above the multiple resistance levels that we noted on yesterday's update as it moved up to a print high of 13,132.46. But look at the close— 13,058.20 — right in the price zone of all the resistance once again. In the newsletter going out this weekend, the front-page chart itemizes each of the resistance levels noted in yesterday's update. Without going into a detailed explanation once again, let's just repeat the numbers given for the five individual resistance levels mentioned yesterday, namely 13,029, 13,054, 13,048, 13,049, and 13,059. We repeat that today's close was 13,058.20, within 1/4% of the furthest resistance level from today's close.

As we note in the newsletter going out this evening, the S&P 500 almost fully met its nominal 20 week upside projection and moved just inside the lower window of its nominal 10 week projection. The Dow Jones industrial average came within 49 points of fully meeting both projections and, in fact, moved into both projection windows at today's highs, thus satisfying all the upside projections, at least on a minimal basis. Even the New York Composite Index moved to within 0.5% of its higher projection window at today's high. The important point to make for both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 with respect to their nominal 10 week projections is that, even if those projection levels are reached any time in the next three weeks, it appears as if no higher projections would be given. What that translates into is that prices should be very close to at least an interim market top if not an important market top.

The McClellan Oscillator closed today at + 119.1 with the McClellan Summation index at + 1,676.5. The ratio adjusted McClellan Oscillator closed at + 37.8 with its Summation index at + 209.3. The CI/NCI ratio closed at 0.991 with the S&P ratio at 0.983. Here are today's Trading Index moving averages:

Single-day 0.92

10 day 1.02

Open 10 0.99

New 10 0.87

Open 30 1.01

TRIN 5 5.24

The S&P 500 New 10 TRIN closed at 0.89. The New 10 TRIN reading for the New York Stock Exchange at 0.87 rendered another short-term sell signal by moving from below 0.80 yesterday to above that reading today.

Mutual-fund switchers— both Rydex and Fidelity switchers are in 100% cash positions. You should stay in close contact with the daily updates next week for the possibility of some new mutual fund recommendations. All mutual-fund switchers should call the telephone update each market day after 3:20 p.m. Eastern time and each market evening.

Stock-index futures traders— although we think the market could turn down from here after some upside probings early next week, the fact that the S&P has not fully reached its nominal 10 week upside projection militates against our recommending any short sale and as yet. Stand aside on Monday.

Gold still hasa nominal 20 week downside projection to 812.30 ± $25. Bonds still have a nominal 10 week downside projection to 115 6/32 ± 16/32 and have been within the window of that projection several times over the past few weeks. Have a great week-end. We'll talk to you on Monday.